When should you stop testing your positioning and commit?

Stop testing and commit once you have spent about the first 37 percent of your horizon looking and your best position clears your own bar. The 37 percent (1/e) look-then-leap rule from optimal-stopping theory sets the date; searching past it resets the reputation compounding you have already earned. This calculator computes that date, whether you are past it, and the confidence to commit, from your own numbers.

The Positioning Commit Calculator · Are you still searching, or overdue to commit?

1 = weak, 10 = clearly winning

77
Positioning Confidence
Over-searching

You are about 4.6 months past your commit-by date.

  • At a 12-month horizon, your look phase should have ended after ~4.4 months.
  • Your best position scores 7/10, which clears your bar. Commit it.
  • Overfitting flag: you tested 6 variants where ~4 was horizon-appropriate. Past that you are fitting noise, not the market.
  • Runway read: exploit.
You passed your commit-by date about 4.6 months ago. At a 12-month horizon, that is 4.6 months of reputation compounding you reset by continuing to test. Ending the look phase and compounding one position across your market is exactly what Petrichor's reputation-engineering engagement does.
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Get the full Positioning Commit Brief (PDF)

Your threshold math, the signals to watch, and a commit-readiness checklist.

FAQ

What is the 37% rule?
From optimal-stopping theory: spend the first ~37% (1/e) of your search only looking, set a bar from what you see, then commit to the first option that beats it. It maximizes your odds of picking the best without searching forever.
Why does testing positioning too long hurt?
Reputation compounds through repetition. Every repositioning resets that compounding, so searching past your commit date is a known, recurring loss, not a free option.
Does the calculator use my data?
Every output is computed from the five numbers you enter. There are no invented industry benchmarks.